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The Dubbak vote is cast. Never before, perhaps there was such a high voltage campaign for a by-election which does not alter the balance of political power in the state. No single election, especially a by-election, can be judged as any reasonable indicator of future electoral prospects of party in power. Yet opposition waged a spirited battle. The enthusiasm in the opposition camp is not without any reason. Though Dubbak will not decisively impact the power arithmetic, its implications for Telangana polity contours cannot be so easily brushed aside.
There are several possible scenarios. The most probable one will be a win for the ruling TRS. How decisive will it be? How far and how nearer to the Huzurnagar mandate? The political circles will infer any substantial reduction in the TRS margin of victory as a beginning of TRS downfall. No political party can summarily reject the possibility of anti-incumbency at the end of the second term. Hence, any significant erosion in the TRS majority or percentage of votes will certainly be interpreted as people disenchantment with KCR regime; no matter will it remain till 2023.
A massive mandate for TRS will further demoralize the opposition camp, especially exposing the hollowness of BJP’s sound and fury and congress claim of reinventing itself in the electoral landscape of Dubbak. The Dubbak verdict can impact the political alliances and arithmetic in the ensuing elections to the legislative council.
The more significant signal from this by-poll would be testing the competing claims of Congress and BJP for the number 2 position. In the run-up to the elections, the political observers forecast a surge in BJP vote and the saffron party may even surpass Congress to emerge as runner up. This will be a bigger morale booster for the BJP. The party has been claiming to be an alternative to TRS ever since it polled 20 percent votes and won 4 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The BJP’s tally in parliamentary elections was undoubtedly superior to Congress than the respective parties’ past performances.
An impressive surge of BJP may even lead to further desertions in Congress. The BJP could already lure few congress leaders, and some more are reported to be getting ready to shift political loyalties. They are reportedly waiting for the Dubbak results. Vijayasanthi’s name already cropped up in media and political circles even before Dubbak voters exercised their franchise.
The BJP hopes to make a comeback in GHMC polls if it succeeds in trouncing TRS at Dubbak. Enthused by its nationwide exuberance, the BJP is restless to wrest Telangana. However, the saffron party’s talk of a big leap forward remained a battle cry till now. But, Dubbak will test the veracity of BJP’s claims more than anything else.
By Prof K Nageshwar
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Tags Dubbak By Polls TRS TRS BJP
