Trump’s H-1B Curbs Shake Texas Real Estate

The crackdown on H-1B visa immigrants is proving costly for the US, leading to busting of the rapid real estate boom in North Texas suburbs, particularly in towns like Frisco, Prosper and Celina.

In addition to the crackdown, the layoffs, driven by the shift to the AI, have led to falling home prices, slowing demand and growing inventories of unsold houses. The slowdown in the realty sector shows that immigration and housing were interdependent in parts of the US.

During the pandemic, there was a surge in the housing market, as many skilled immigrant workers showed interest in buying homes due to discounts. For nearly a decade, South Asians remained the driving force behind the construction boom in the region, due to the expanding technology hubs, good schools and relatively affordable housing.

According to a report in Bloomberg News, Tradition Homes, a luxury builder, South Asian buyers once accounted for about 70 per cent of sales. Now, the share has dropped below 30 per cent. More than 100 high-end homes are waiting for buyers.

Since 2018, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area attracted more corporate headquarters relocations than anywhere else in the US, CBRE Group Inc. said.

During the last five years, there had been a jump in the Indian population in Collin and Denton Counties. Suddenly, Indian buyers are disappearing from the market due to the tightened H-1B restrictions and firing of workers due to the AI shifting.

In February, the prices of houses in the Collin County suburbs north of Dallas dropped almost 9% from a year earlier, according to data from brokerage Redfin.

The Trump administration tightened rules for the H-1B visa programme with higher fees, stricter salary requirements and serious scrutiny of employers. Texas authorities also launched investigations into alleged visa misuse.

The uncertainty in the circumstances has hit home buying. As workers on H-1B visas losing their jobs have only 60 days to secure a new sponsor, potential buyers are delaying purchases.

Housing experts opined the Dallas experience could serve as a warning for other US regions that depend heavily on skilled immigration. The Suburban markets in Northern Virginia, Seattle and Raleigh also rely on H-1B workers to support housing demand and population growth.