India, The Most Affected By The Pandemic In The World – Prof K Nageshwar

Even as the governments continue to claim that India is the best in the world in controlling COVID-19, the country surges ahead on the pandemic curve with a daily case tally of over 90 thousand cases. India today has the highest number of daily new cases in the world.

India’s COVID-19 tally of cases went past 42 lakh with a record of 90,802 people being infected in a day. India is now only behind the US when it comes to the total number of cases, globally.

This is despite the fact that India conducts much fewer tests than the United States of America. A significant proportion of these tests are less accurate Rapid Antigen Test. If these two factors are accounted for, India will perhaps be the world’s most affected nation due to pandemic.

Despite having a recovery rate of over 76 percent, India is yet to reach the peak of the pandemic curve, indicating much more significant rise in total number of corona cases. In fact, Professor Ashish Jha of Harvard Global Health Institute, says that even by a conservative estimate, India’s daily new caseload would be at least five lakhs, as many of those infected may not be tested.

As of September 05, 2020, India conducted 49 million tests cumulatively. This is an impressive rise as India’s total test stood at merely 40 lakh on June 1. But, the United States has so far conducted 90 million tests. India’s population size is over four times that of the United States.

Several other countries have been conducting more tests to control the epidemic. At a time when there is no vaccine or assured drug, testing to trace, track, and isolate the infected persons is the most effective weapon against the pandemic.

But, India has conducted only 35 tests per thousand people, whereas the corresponding figures for the United States, UK, and Germany stood at 273, 223, and 148 respectively.

The rapid antigen test accounts for a significant proportion of India’s total tests. In a submission to the court itself, the Delhi government acknowledged that the positivity rate in antigen tests was 6 percent while 19 percent in RTPCR test. The total caseload will further rise if more accurate tests are done.

India’s positivity rate as on September 5, 2020, stands at 7.6. While the corresponding figures for the USA and Italy are 5.6 and 2.1 respectively. Epidemiologists state that a higher positivity rate indicates the need for greater testing.

By — Prof K Nageshwar

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