Survey: TDP-JSP Alliance Leading, But With A Twist

Almost every discussion in the Telugu political circles is about the Andhra Pradesh elections. Likewise, a lot is riding on the survey reports that are crucial to get a view of the public mandate and which is party is in the better position to hold power. On this topic, RISE survey agency has rolled out its ground report on AP polling trends and they have given a marginal edge to the TDP-JSP alliance, but with a twist.

As of today, the TDP-JSP alliance will get 94 MLA seats while YCP will settle with 46 seats and the other 35 seats will witness a tight battle between these two parties. But if TDP and JSP decide to partner with BJP and form an alliance, their winning seats will go down. This is due to the negativity on BJP, which was seen in 2019 when BJP got 0 MLA and 0 MP seats. So, not including BJP in the alliance is the best way forward for the TDP-JSP alliance, according to the RISE survey.

About YCP losing nearly 100 MLA seats from 2019, the RISE survey says the Jagan party is not as strong in the big 4 districts that worked wonders for it in 2019. Kadapa(10), Kurnool(14), Nellore(10), and Vizianagaram(9) were swept by YCP and added 43 seats to their total count. But these districts will not be as one-sided in 2024, says the report. Kadapa might or might not give all 10 of its seats to YCP, but what this survey mentions is that TDP-JSP will split the seats in Kurnool, Nellore, and certainly Vizianagaram.

The district-wise clean sweep trend that YCP benefited from in 2019 will not be seen in 2024, reportedly. More importantly, there will be no split in anti-government votes this year as TDP and JSP are contesting together. Even in Rayalaseema, where YCP won 49/52 seats might distribute substantial number of seats to the alliance, says the report. But this is an estimated report based on the current public trend on the parties. Once the candidates are finalized, the trees will be corrected slightly. But for now, the trend is very much in favor of the alliance, as seen in the ground report from RISE survey agency.