Who Won and Who Lost In Bihar Polls? – Prof K Nageshwar

The ruling NDA has just crossed the magic figure in Bihar. The alliance is expected to win 125 seats finally. While the RJD lead alliance is not too far behind with 110 seats.

The complex poll arithmetic of Bihar is making it difficult to identify the winners and losers of the elections.

Of course, at the end, NDA has won, and RJD led alliance lost. But, underneath this generalization, many things in fine print cannot go unnoticed. Firstly, Nitish Kumar is now reduced to a junior partner in the NDA. Even if he retains his chief minister post, the JD (U) chief will undoubtedly be at the mercy of the saffron brigade. But, Nitish Kumar still proved to be a force to reckon with despite facing anti-incumbency and the rebellion from within the NDA in the form of LJP. Kumar led JD (U) is winning 43 seats. He continues to be a formidable player in Bihar politics as he enjoys the confidence of Non-Yadav most backward class. 

The 31 year Tejashwi Yadav in the absence of his indomitable father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, steered the alliance almost to the gateway of power. He could lead the RJD to emerge as the single largest party by winning 75 seats. He could successfully increase vote share for his party 5 percent. Besides, Tejaswi Yadav could forge a successful alliance with Congress and left. The defeat was so narrow that a few thousand votes would have made a world of difference on who holds or comes to power in Bihar. Thus, Tejaswi Yadav so early in his life emerged as a cynosure of anti-BJP politics, not just in Bihar, but in India. He also managed to fight the jungle raj image of his father and the party by mainly focusing on livelihood concerns like jobs. 

The MIM chief and Hyderabad MP, Assaduddin Owaisi, accused by his critics as vote cutter in favor of BJP, could ensure that his party MIM won five seats. It is a remarkable breakthrough for MIM as it failed to open its account in 2015 but managed to enter the Bihar assembly through a by-poll later. Enthused by this success, the MIM chief now focuses on another critical state of Bengal. The surge in MIM vote will certainly annoy non-BJP parties banking on Muslim vote bank. 

The left, which has been facing headwinds in its traditional strongholds, could register a significant comeback in Bihar. The combined left won 16 of the 29 seats it contested. The left strike rate (The ratio between the number of seats won and contested) is far more superior to that of Congress. 

Despite the anti-incumbency for its chief ministerial face, Nitish Kumar, the BJP has substantially improved its performance by staking claim to be the single largest party. After Maharashtra, Bihar is the second state where the BJP trounced its ally to emerge as a senior partner in the alliance. 

The LJP performance at the hustings was disastrous. But the Paswan’s party was fighting to pull down Nitish Kumar rather than winning the seats. Judging from this point of view, LJP can also be called a winner. 

The biggest loser seems to be the Congress, whose miserable strike rate has shattered the dreams of Tejaswi Yadav. The party contested 70 seats and ended up winning only 19. Tejaswi hoped Congress to get the upper caste vote for the alliance. But, the upper caste vote remained with BJP despite disillusionment with Nitish Kumar. They mostly voted for LJP candidates who are mainly BJP rebels in the seats contested by JD (U). 

By Prof K Nageshwar

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