How not to look at Dubbak verdict?

Political parties are reacting to the Dubbak mandate in their distinctive way. However, the TRS wants us to believe that it is an aberration, and the party still enjoys the unequivocal support of the people of Telangana.

The BJP calls it the beginning of the fall of the KCR regime. Congress, which does not wish to give the credit to BJP, dismisses it as lotus bloomed essentially due to anti-incumbency of TRS. What is required is a dispassionate view of the people’s mandate. 

The people of Dubbak have rejected TRS for a host of reasons. KCR regime cannot ignore the increasing discontent, especially among certain sections of society like the unemployed, government teachers, employees, etc. Dubbak would serve as a saviour for TRS if it honestly attempts to accept the feedback and amend its policies. Otherwise, Dubbak will be the precursor to a more significant political disaster.

The mandate in this by-election is symptomatic of broader political malaise creeping into the TRS. The unilateral style of functioning of its leadership and the aggressive style of dealing with political adversaries does not always receive public acclaim. Political maneuvering to debilitate the opposition can even backfire.

History is replete with examples of how so-called invincible leaders proved to be feeble at the altar of people’s mandate. Welfarism alone does not suffice without significant change in the quality of governance. People judge parties from their respective yardsticks. TRS performance will always be judged from the goal post of aspirations and promises of the Telangana movement. Any comparison with the united state administration does not satisfy the people.

The BJP’s exuberance at an unexpected win is understandable, but the party cannot forget the experience of Mahabubnagar by-poll in 2012. BJP defeated TRS in this historic fight. But, the party was not a force to reckon with in Mahabubnagar in subsequent elections. The BJP’s own experience with by-elections is also noteworthy. The party lost most of the by-elections to Lok Sabha during 2014-19. The party still managed to get a resounding victory in 2019. Therefore, any reading of Dubbak success as a beginning of a process to catapult BJP to power in 2023 is a farfetched assumption, not backed by any empirical basis. 

However, one cannot wish away the fact that BJP is expanding its footprint in Telangana. Its impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections, its improved tally in the local body polls, and spectacular victory at Dubbak illustrate this trend. Its debacle in the 2018 Assembly elections and its devastating show in the Huzurnagar by-poll cannot undermine its significant successes elsewhere. 

The Congress perceiving BJP’s win as an anti-TRS trend speaks of its hypocrisy. Why did Congress fail to capitalize on such anti-TRS sentiment when BJP could do so? Instead of futile explanations, Congress has a lot to introspect. 

By Prof K Nageshwar

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