Researchers Predict 3rd Wave This Month End

While we are all trying to heal the indelible wounds left behind by the second wave of COVID-19, the health experts are already asking the public to brace themselves as the third wave is nearing.

The country may soon witness another catastrophic rise in COVID-19 cases as soon as this month-end. The researchers are warning that the third wave is predicted to peak with less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario.

Research led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively stated that the surge in COVID-19 cases will push the third wave of the pandemic, which may peak in October starting from August end.

Vidyasagar states that states as Kerala and Maharashtra, which have a huge number of cases could “skew the picture.” However, the third wave is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave. It is to be remembered that these researches predictions early this year have been made accurately and it is based on a mathematical model.

K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, warned that as the virus mutates further, the third wave of COVID infection is inevitable. Also, it has been told that the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads like chickenpox and can be passed on by vaccinated people.

The cases in 8 states currently have been termed as ‘’significant problem’’ and 44 districts have reported a high case positivity. “Delta-driven second wave is still not over,” warned VK Paul, who heads the government’s Covid task force.

The states where the R-factor is more than one are Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, and Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Mizoram, Karnataka, Puducherry, and Kerala. Only Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra show a declining trend.

Meanwhile, India reported 30,549 new Covid cases and 422 deaths in the past 24 hours.