‘Festival Season Might Bring 3rd Wave Earlier’

The threat of the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic is looming for quite some time now and the ICMR suggested several precautionary measures for states, especially holiday-destination places in India. A few experts conducted a study in ICMR based on mathematical modelling and said that the third-wave peak could increase by up to 47 per cent during the holiday season.

In fact, the third wave might occur two weeks earlier if the holiday places and festival celebrations go beyond control. “The study illustrates a scenario where population density in India has a stronger effect on transmission than in the USA. Here, the holiday period could amplify the third-wave peak by up to 103 per cent and cumulative incidence in that wave by 43 per cent, and hasten the timing of the epidemic peak by four weeks, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel,” the study said.

The government organization advised people to drop travel plans if they have COVID-like symptoms or a prolonged dry cough and etc. It added that states may consider proof of completed vaccination status to travel and a recent COVID-negative test result for hotel accommodations. And as always, social distancing should be mandatory during this critical month.

There was a recent increase of visitors to Manali and other small places such as Darjeeling in West Bengal and Assam in the North-Eastern states of India. All these places have seen a slight surge in cases. It further noted that the observations indicate increasing opportunities for transmission in areas where population-level immunity has not yet accumulated to the same levels as elsewhere in the country.

There is an urge to travel among many after suffering from intense second wave throughout India. But too many travels now is particularly worrying as there will be an increase in population density even in small states and towns. The scientists proposed that “responsible travel” should be preferred over “revenge travel”.