Should India Go For Another Lockdown?

The nation is agog with speculation that India will witness a second nationwide lockdown after counting votes of assembly elections on May 2nd. Several state governments have already clamped lockdowns and other restrictions to bring down the surging case numbers. The impact of these restrictions is already felt with daily new cases witnessing a marginal decline. This, perhaps, incentivizes governments to impose similar restrictions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi rightly observed that lockdown should be the last weapon. But, what matters is how the governments will act to ensure that the last weapon would not be fired. Unfortunately, governments seem to be lacking in their efforts to initiate measures that would avert a lockdown.

Political leadership is doing everything that will send the country into yet another harsh lockdown. Epidemiologists and modelling experts are already cautioning that India will witness four to ten lakh daily new cases in May. Such an alarming situation may inevitably drive the country into a lockdown.

Given the debilitating impact of last year’s lockdown, the centre seems to be treading on a cautious path. It realizes the political cost of imposing a lockdown that would prove to be disastrous for the livelihoods of working millions. Thus, unlike in the first wave, the centre is asking states to declare regional and local lockdowns so that they can walk away from the public ire.

Lockdowns are not a solution to the pandemic. They will not kill the virus. However, lockdowns and such restrictions would help the authorities to ensure that the number of people who require hospitalization and intensive care would not in any way overwhelm the available medical infrastructure. Though the government refuses to acknowledge the full gravity of the problem on the ground as they perceive political incentive in fudging the data, the anecdotal evidence suggests that the medical infrastructure both in the public and private sector have already reached saturation levels. Any further surge would prove to be catastrophical, endangering the lives of thousands of people. The politicians refuse to relent. People are not still disciplined to voluntarily adhere to COVID-appropriate behaviour. Vaccination is unlikely to expand in a big way given the shortages and price pandemonium.

Thus, lockdowns have to be avoided. They should be the last resort. But in the absence of series of measures required to prevent the surge, the lockdowns seem to be imminent. The lockdown 2.0 may or may not be as stringent as the earlier one.

-By Prof K Nageshwar

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