Exit polls Exuberance And The Political Portends

The pugnacious party spoke persons in an ossified political system may not accept the exit polls, especially when they are unpalatable. But sooner or later, the political reality, pleasant or unpleasant has to descend on the horizons of India’s political landscape. But the political portends emerging from the exit poll exuberance deserve incisive analysis.

The belligerent West Bengal remains an enigma as pollsters are divided in their forecast. The polls summarize that Bengal can go anyway. Thus, the electoral outcome in the polarised Bengal battle field is pregnant with possibilities. But one thing is sure. Whether or not the saffron strikes in once a red delta, the BJP is still a winner. Every exit poll suggests that BJP’s tally will shot up astronomically from a mere three in 2016 to nothing less than 115 in 2021. This is certainly a scintillating performance by any standards, perhapsunheard of in any democracy. The BJP may beat its record in Tripura, yet another left bastion.

As predicted by all the exit polls, the left and the congress are unlikely to resurface in any big way despite a politically unpleasant alliance and opportunistic embrace with secularly masked Abbas Siddiqui.  

Few of the pollsters give a thumbs up to the Trinamool Congress. There is even a likelihood of TMC sailing through with the support of Congress- Left- ISF-led combine with a sole objective of keeping BJP at bay. In such an eventuality, Mamata Banerjee would emerge as a fulcrum of opposition unity. The left and the congress will have leverage in otherwise a bleak scenario.

Tamil Nadu’s verdict is beyond suspect. All exit polls are unanimous in predicting a convincing margin for DMK led alliance. This perhaps is the only relief for the battered congress. The ADMK-BJP partnership is most likely to fail in halting the DMK juggernaut. Kamal Haasan probably would end with an unstarry show.

As the world turns right, Kerala is expected to turn once again to left. Quite surprisingly, given the electoral arithmetic, the saffron surge is expected to pep up the red wave. Precisely for this, few pollsters predict a landslide win for CPI(M) led LDF. The unanimous prediction is that the LDF will retain Kerala known for the change of guard every five years.

The BJP expects to retain Assam and wrest Puducherry much to the congress chagrin.   

-By Prof K Nageshwar

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