The political Jigsaw puzzle in Bihar alliance arithmetic — Prof K Nageshwar

The Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan who died the other day is now the focal point of Bihar politics. The strange stand taken by LJP chief and Late Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan turned Bihar politics into a jigsaw puzzle of alliances. LJP decided to remain in NDA at the national level, but, walked out of the alliance in Bihar. The LJP will oppose Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar, but will continue to be an ally of BJP. The BJP is fighting Bihar polls under the leadership of Nitish Kumar whom the LJP is opposing. Thus, the LJP’s intriguing stand on alliances is now the talking point in Bihar. What will be the impact of the LJP’s stand on the Bihar mandate is for anybody to speculate.

Late Ram Vilas Paswan employed a similar tactic in 2005. The LJP remained with Congress-led UPA at the national level, but, opposed RJD which had an alliance with the Congress in Bihar. The result was the end of 15 year long rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav. If the history repeats itself on the banks of Ganges, the 2021 polls would be Nitish Kumar’s waterloo.

But, the Bihar Chief Minister is known for criss-crossing political camps with a remarkable alacrity to remain in power. Who will win the battle between shrewd politics of Paswans and survival instinct of Nitish Kumar?

The BJP is being accused of running with the JD(U) and hunting with the LJP. The state BJP’s ambition to emerge as a senior partner in Bihar NDA is well known. In fact, several state BJP leaders have publicly expressed their dissatisfaction over going to polls under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. The BJP argues that the popularity of JD(U) supremo is waning. But, the Maharashtra fiasco haunts the saffron party.

The BJP’s attempt to grow at the cost of its ally Shivasena though yielded positive dividends in the beginning, has proved to be costlier subsequently. The Shivasena conveniently switched sides to snatch the mandate from the jaws of BJP. BJP is worried of Mumbai repeating in Patna. Nitish Kumar joined hands with Congress and RJD to win the 2015 polls. He deserted the grand alliance and embraced BJP in 2017. The BJP is therefore, decided to sail with Nitish Kumar to avoid any advantage to its rivals.

The LJP’s stand may help BJP to realise its ambition to grab Chief Minister’s Gaddi. But, the RJD may also be the beneficiary if LJP become the spoiler. Will the great Bihar gambit pay off?

By – Prof K Nageshwar

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