How Geopolitics Is Killing Andhra Shrimp!

A year after US tariffs nearly paralysed Andhra Pradesh’s shrimp export industry, the sector is once again facing a potential shock from Washington. On September 15, 2026, the US House Rules Committee considered a legislation that would give President Donald Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying significant quantities of Russian oil and gas. 

An amendment specifically naming India among countries potentially subject to the 100% duties was submitted, but the Rules Committee rejected that amendment, along with another amendment that would have removed the broad secondary-tariff provision. The underlying tariff authority therefore remains in the bill as it moves through the House process.

That does not mean the US has imposed a new 100% tariff on India. The legislation still has to clear the House and complete the legislative process before becoming law, and even then the tariff would be an authority available to the US president, not an automatic 100% levy on Indian goods. Ahead of the House consideration, the Senate-passed legislation had already cleared the Senate 86–11 and could authorise tariffs of up to 100% on countries including India and China. 

That brings Andhra back to a familiar problem

The reason this matters particularly to Andhra Pradesh is shrimp. By September 15, 2025, the Andhra government estimated that US tariffs had caused around ₹25,000 crore in losses to the state’s shrimp export sector, with approximately 50% of export orders cancelled. About 2,000 containers were reportedly carrying a tariff burden of nearly ₹600 crore. Andhra accounts for a very large share of India’s shrimp exports, and more than 30 lakh people were estimated to depend on shrimp exports and allied activities in the state. 

The tariff burden at the time had become extraordinarily high. The 25% US tariff on Indian goods was followed by another 25% levy linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Together with existing countervailing and anti-dumping duties, the reported effective tariff burden on Indian shrimp had reached around 59.72%. That put Indian shrimp at a major disadvantage against Ecuador, India’s principal competitor in the US market. 

The impact travelled well beyond exporters. Exporters reduced the prices they were willing to pay farmers and some farmers began considering stopping shrimp cultivation altogether. In August 2025 exporters had cut the prices offered to farmers by almost 20%, while farmers were simultaneously dealing with loans, feed, electricity and other operating costs. 

Then came February 2026 and a slight relief

The situation changed in early 2026.

The US-India trade framework brought the broad reciprocal tariff on Indian goods down to 18%, removing the additional 25% tariff that had been imposed over India’s Russian-oil purchases. For Andhra’s shrimp sector, that was a major relief.

At the time, however, exporters warned that simply lowering the tariff would not instantly restore the US market. Indian shrimp had lost ground to Ecuador, whose exporters had gained market share while Indian shipments were disrupted. It was reported in February that there had been no US orders since October, while Andhra exporters said rebuilding the market would take time. 

There was another complication: the tariff crisis had coincided with EHP disease, which had affected shrimp farms. Some farmers shifted towards smaller shrimp for the domestic market because they were cheaper to produce, although these varieties offered lower margins. 

So the February tariff reduction stopped the immediate free fall, but it did not take Andhra back to where it was before the crisis.

And the problem gradually shifted from tariffs to the cost of farming

By mid-2026, Andhra’s aquaculture sector was dealing with a different kind of pressure.

Feed prices became a major flashpoint. In June, manufacturers increased shrimp-feed prices by ₹12–16 per kg, even as farmers were still recovering from the tariff-related losses and disease-management costs. Farmers said feed accounts for roughly half of shrimp-farming expenditure and that the price increases were pushing production costs beyond what many small and medium farmers could absorb.

The state intervened. In June, the Chandrababu Naidu government negotiated a ₹4-per-kg reduction, bringing the reported maximum retail price from ₹112 to ₹108 per kg and setting up a committee involving farmers, manufacturers and officials to examine pricing. 

The problem has persisted into September. The Andhra Pradesh High Court on September 3 ordered that shrimp-feed prices remain at the rates specified in the June 12 circular while a case challenging a subsequent unilateral price increase is heard. The matter is scheduled for September 30. 

The Centre’s latest assessment, presented in August, said Andhra has approximately 2.16 lakh aquaculture farmers covering 5.79 lakh acres. The state government reported that farmers were facing declining market prices and higher feed costs, while feed manufacturers had agreed to a ₹4/kg reduction. 

So, a year later, Andhra’s shrimp industry is not in the same position as September 2025. The additional tariff linked to India’s Russian-oil purchases has been removed, significantly reducing the earlier combined tariff burden. But farmers have not simply returned to business as usual. The sector is now dealing with a combination of market prices, input costs, disease management and the effort to rebuild export markets.

Which brings us back to September 15, 2026

If the new US legislation eventually becomes law and the administration uses it against India, Andhra could face another serious disruption.

But there is one important difference from 2025: Andhra and Indian exporters have already started diversifying. The government has been pushing alternative markets, while India’s broader seafood sector has developed stronger links with China, Japan, Europe, Australia and other destinations. The Centre has also been supporting aquaculture infrastructure, processing and market diversification. 

There is also another US-specific complication for shrimp. On September 4, 2026, the US Commerce Department finalised anti-dumping duties on Indian frozen warm-water shrimp ranging from 4.04% to 7.01%, depending on the exporter. Those duties are separate from the proposed Russia-related tariff authority. 

The real question for Andhra

The September 15 development therefore doesn’t mean “Andhra shrimp is facing another 100% tariff.” That would be premature.

And that makes the next few months important. The unresolved question is whether that diversification is strong enough to protect Andhra’s farmers if the US market is hit again.