Telugu States Did What India Asked To Control Population. Now There Is A Different Problem.

From past couple of years, Chandrababu Naidu said something that would have sounded like the opposite of what should have been said in Indian politics: Andhra Pradesh should encourage young couples to have three or four children. Naidu, who had once strongly advocated population control, said the state had followed that approach too successfully and now risked losing its young population. He specifically linked the issue to economic growth and warned about the experience of countries such as China and Japan. He made the same argument in 2024, after becoming the Andhra chief minister, pointing towards ageing population and migration and other such problems. 

Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy also backed the broader concern that falling fertility in the South could eventually create an ageing-population problem. 

The political messaging was different, but the demographic anxiety was similar. There is now a new problem. 

Earlier this month, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) released a working paper where it talks about India’s population issue. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India is now 1.9. It means on average, each woman in India is having 1.9 children. If the TFR is 2.1, then it means that the population is at a ‘replacement level’, meaning it can sustain without a decline in the population. 

Telugu States

Telugu states have been consistently known to have controlled population but it came to such a level that Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are both below the replacement level. 

Andhra Pradesh is at 1.4 and Telangana at 1.5. 

In other words, both Telugu states are already substantially below the level at which a population can reproduce itself over the long term.

And this is not a recent development. The demographic transition in the Telugu region began decades ago. The EAC-PM paper says Andhra Pradesh (combined) has been below replacement fertility since 2001. The combined Andhra Pradesh of that period had already moved through the replacement threshold before Telangana was created in 2014; the separate state figures today simply reflect how far that transition has continued. The paper places both AP and Telangana among the southern states that have remained below replacement for more than two decades.

That history matters because it changes the nature of the question. This is not about a sudden fall in births. Andhra Pradesh has spent more than two decades moving from a high-fertility society to a low-fertility one. A recent analysis of the state’s trajectory, using official data, puts the combined state’s TFR at around 2.2 in 2003, before the subsequent decline. 

India’s Overall Situation

India’s overall transition is enormous. According to the report, annual births peaked at about 29.3 million in 2001, but had fallen to around 23.2 million by 2023, roughly the number India was recording in 1974. The national TFR reached 1.9 in 2024.

Highest Sterilizations In The Country – Andhra Pradesh

And Andhra’s history makes the irony particularly sharp. According to the paper, 69.5% of married women in Andhra Pradesh have undergone sterilisation, the highest figure in the comparison presented. Telangana is at 62.5%. The national average is 36.5%. So Andhra has double the sterilization rate of India’s number. 

For decades, that was treated as evidence of successful family planning. The problem is that demographic success has a second act. Once fertility remains low for long enough, the issue stops being how to reduce births and becomes how to deal with fewer young people entering the workforce.

North-South Difference

From a broad perspective, North Indian states have a higher TFR than south Indian states. 

But India is not moving through this transition at the same speed. Bihar’s TFR is 2.9, Uttar Pradesh’s 2.6, Madhya Pradesh’s 2.4 and Rajasthan’s 2.3. Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are around 2.2. These are the only states above the replacement level.

Meanwhile when it comes to South India, Andhra Pradesh is at 1.4, Telangana at 1.5, Karnataka at 1.5, Kerala and Tamil Nadu at 1.3.

Other North Indian states are at the replacement leve.

High TFR Table

Rank	State	TFR (2024)
1	Bihar	2.9
2	Uttar Pradesh	2.6
3	Madhya Pradesh	2.4
4	Rajasthan	2.3
5	Chhattisgarh	2.2

Low TFR Table

Rank*	State	TFR
1	Kerala	1.3
2	Tamil Nadu	1.3
3	West Bengal	1.3
4	Andhra Pradesh	1.4
5	Maharashtra	1.4

This is creating a demographic North-South divide that goes well beyond the familiar political argument over population and representation. The southern states now have a median age of almost 35, compared with about 30 for India. The EAC-PM paper says their demographic profile is beginning to look closer to ageing economies than to the younger parts of India. 

That means India is simultaneously dealing with two different demographic realities: some states are still managing population growth, while others are beginning to manage population ageing.

What Did Other Countries With Declining Population Face?

The international examples are even more revealing. Japan’s shrinking and ageing population has meant a smaller workforce and growing pressure on social security and healthcare. China is now facing a similar transition after decades of population control. Its population declined for a fifth consecutive year in 2025, while births fell to about 8.2 million. The country’s shift from a one-child policy to two and then three children has not produced a corresponding fertility rebound.

Why Should Andhra And Telangana Focus On This?

That is the part Andhra Pradesh and Telangana should pay attention to. Changing policy does not necessarily change family behaviour. Once smaller families become socially and economically normal, governments cannot simply announce a pro-natalist policy and expect fertility to return to two or three children.

For AP and Telangana, the consequences will emerge slowly. Fewer children today means fewer young workers two decades from now. A larger elderly population means greater demand for healthcare, pensions and care. Businesses may eventually have to operate with a smaller pool of locally available young workers.

Migration could become one answer. Younger workers from states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh could increasingly move towards ageing but economically stronger states such as Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. That is not necessarily a crisis; migration can help balance India’s very different demographic realities. But it would mean that India’s demographic divide increasingly becomes an economic relationship between states, younger states supplying workers to older ones.

The Implications

There is also a federal question lurking underneath it. The states that moved fastest on family planning are now ageing faster, while states that retain higher fertility will account for a growing share of India’s younger population. This can impact political representation such as delimitation, federal distribution of taxes, and distribution of economic opportunities. 

Which leaves Andhra Pradesh and Telangana with a much bigger question than whether people should have more children.

After spending decades successfully doing what India’s population policy asked them to do, should the Telugu states now try to reverse the demographic trend, or should they accept that lower fertility is here to stay and redesign their economies, healthcare systems, cities and migration policies for an older population?